Conservative Future Survey Part 2: The analysis

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September 23, 2013 by mmetcaa

Sorry for the delay. Here is a copy of my analysis report. If you have any questions, please be sure to get in touch:

Brief: Conservative Future members are overwhelmingly against Britain’s membership of the EU; in favour of reducing foreign aid; against military action in Syria; in support of reductions in immigration; are sceptical about global warming; and are torn on the reintroduction of Capital Punishment

 

Conservative Future (CF) members make up a significant part of the Conservative Party’s grassroots, yet up to now we have very little knowledge about what our potential future party leaders think. As part of an on-going project designed to better understand young Conservatives and their beliefs, I recently conducted a survey asking a sample of CF members for their opinions on a range of issues. With the help of various MPs and the CF itself, I was able to generate a sample of 220 respondents.Due to a lack of resources, the paper survey relies on a sample of convenience as opposed to randomization. Although ideally I should like to have collected more responses, a sample of 220 observations does at least provide sufficient evidence for some tentative insights given the scarcity of existing studies.

The questions asked covered a variety of issues. Of the 220 responses collected, 163 (75.5%) were male compared to 53 (24.5%) females (4 respondents chose to keep their gender anonymous)  .  The preponderance of males over females in the sample is to a great extent a reflection of a similar preponderance within the CF as a whole. All attempts were made to reach a greater number of females and future studies should attempt to obtain a greater female sample.  The age range covered is 16- 30, with 16-20 years olds making up 34.4%, 21-25 year olds 51.8% and 26- 30 year olds 13.8%. Of those sampled, 45% consider themselves Catholic, Anglican or ‘other’ Christian denomination, compared to 42.2% who consider themselves to be agnostic or atheist.  The remaining 12.8% defined as another religion ( see full break down on link below)

  • With regards to Syria and the intervention proposed by the government , CF members overwhelmingly support Parliament’s decision to vote against such action. 36.2% believe that Britain ‘should stay out of all foreign wars’ compared to 32.6% who think that ‘the facts on Syria are unclear’. Overall, 19.27% of those asked believe Britain should commit to military action.
  • On the issue of Gibraltar, CF members are against negotiation with the Spanish over the future of Gibraltar, but do support peaceful attempts to resolve the present dispute via diplomatic means (51.4%).  This compares with 43.6% who believe the navy should be sent to ‘assert Britain’s ownership of Gibraltar’.  Only 1.8% of those sampled believe the Government should be open to discussion with the Spanish over whether Gibraltar should remain a British territory.
  • On foreign aid, CF members do not share the position of David Cameron and the government: 45.4% believe the foreign aid bill should be reduced while 24.8% believe aid should be scrapped altogether. 20.6% believe that Britain should maintain the current level of aid, while 8.7% think that it should be increased.
  • On membership of the EU, CF members are overwhelmingly Eurosceptic with 61%  favouring withdrawal compared with 38.4% that favour Britain remaining as a member. On the question of how they would vote in an in-out referendum ‘held tomorrow’, 72.5% would vote to leave the EU compared to just 21.6% who would vote to stay in. 0.9% would not vote while 5.0% remain undecided.
  • On attitudes towards global warming, the sample suggests that CF members are less than convinced : 48% are sceptical of global warming ( 30.6% believe that there is not yet clear evidence of global warming while 18.1% think is a myth), compared to 43% who think that the issue is important (30.6% think that it is a big issue but think more work needs to be done before we make radical changes while 13% think radical steps need to be taken now)
  • The CF are torn on the reintroduction of Capital Punishment for crimes such as murder. Some 47.3 % are in favour of reintroduction (23.9% strongly agree, 23.4% agree) compared to 46.8% who are not (12.4 disagree, 34.4% strongly disagree), with those in favour having a very slight ascendancy. At the national level, support for the death penalty has declined from over 70% in the 1970s to 51% in 2010.  The assessment of attitudes to capital punishment has tended to be carried out through polling only when the issue is highly salient, meaning that respondents may be reacting to a particularly emotive case then in the news.
  • With regards to immigration, the membership of CF is broadly in step with declared government policy.  65% believe that immigration should be reduced but not halted, compared to 9.7% who think it should be ‘halted at once’. 11.1% support the current levels of immigration compared to 10.6% who think ‘further immigration should be encouraged’. It is therefore of little surprise that, when asked about the Home Office’s illegal immigrant van scheme and the allegations of racism, just over 85% of those surveyed disagreed (52.5% strongly disagree, 32.7% disagree) that the scheme was racist compared to just 11.6% who believed that it was racist.

I have also looked at what CF members think about other social issues including sex before marriage, abortion and gay marriage:

  • CF members overwhelmingly think that having sex before marriage is acceptable (72%), compared to 24.3% overall, who do not believe in sex before marriage.  10.1% think that sex should be exclusively between those in wedlock while 14.2% intend not to have sex until they themselves are married but ‘do not mind what others do’. 3.67% answered  ‘don’t know/ none of the above’
  •  On abortion, 42.4% define themselves as pro-choice, while 21.5% of those asked believe women should have the right to choose despite personally being against abortion.  35.6% are pro-life (23.3% against abortion in most cases, 12.3% against in all cases)
  • On gay marriage, 60% support the decision to legalise gay marriage compared to 30% who are against and 7% who have no opinion.  The remaining 2.31 responded with don’t know/ none of the above.

The final set of questions asked respondents which party they believe presents the biggest threat to a Conservative majority in 2015. Just over 55% believe that Labour is the biggest threat, as opposed to 32.7% for UKIP, 6% for the Liberal Democrats and 3.2% for ‘others’.

Last but not least, respondents were asked what they thought of Conservative Future.  This question was asked in light of Tim Wigmore’s article which suggested that the CF and other youth divisions were comprised of ‘young weirdoes’. The results may amuse some, with just over 21% believing the CF ‘to be full of weirdoes’, compared to 22.5% who believe that the CF is ‘a great place to meet likeminded people’.  14% of respondents like to distance themselves from the organisation while 13.8% think that the CF is ‘a great place to meet my future wife/ husband’.

Overall, CF members appear to be firmly on the right of the party with regards to most issues, but with a greater plurality of views on social affairs.  They are overwhelmingly against Britain’s membership of the EU and most would vote to leave tomorrow if given the chance. They are strongly against British intervention in Syria and support Gibraltar remaining British.  Generally speaking, they favour reductions in foreign aid, are sceptical of global warming claims and want immigration reduced. Although torn on the reintroduction of capital punishment, a slight plurality favours the death penalty being used in cases such as murder.  On social issues, however, CF members have liberal attitudes towards sex before marriage, abortion and gay marriage.  Labour are seen by respondents as presenting the biggest threat to a Conservative majority in 2015 whilst views on Conservative Future as an organisation are decidedly mixed.

For a full breakdown of results (including don’t know/ none of the above figures) and relevant graphs, please see this link: http://kwiksurveys.com/tmp_pdf/report-5CE0269252B64B61B0D209F1A789983C.pdf

—–ENDS—–

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One thought on “Conservative Future Survey Part 2: The analysis

  1. Thank you for conducting this survey Mo. It is brilliant! Well, it does seem that Conservative Future members have the right ideas on all the major issues that face our nation today. I look forward to their views being taking into account for our next Conservative Manifesto. It is splendid to see the next generation of Conservatives having all the right instincts. Mrs Thatcher would be very pleased!

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